Sunday, February 23, 2014

Sochi 2014 opening ceremony: Which world leaders will be staying away?

Some of those names are already known. International big hitters including Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, Recip Tayipp Erdogan of Turkey, and Japan’s Shinzo Abe have all accepted Mr Putin’s hospitality.
They join old Russian allies from former Soviet states including Alexander Lukashenko, the near-dictator of Belarus, Ukraine’s embattled Viktor Yanukovych, and Tajikistan’s Emomali Rahmon, who has presided over the Central Asian state for two decades.
Confusion abounds about other guests. Georgian officials previously said no government official would accompany the country’s three skiers and single figure skater to the games, but Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, caused a stir on Thursday when he said he “would not rule out” a meeting between Mr Putin and his Georgian counterpart.
It would be the first meeting between Georgian and Russian heads of state since the countries went to war over the break away republic of South Ossetia during the Beijing Olympics in 2008.
What’s not in doubt is some of the absences. There will be no Barack Obama, no David Cameron, and no Angela Merkel. François Hollande is also staying away, as is Canada’s Stephen Harper.
The big exceptions amongst western delegations are the Dutch - who despite outspoken support for gay rights, are sending not only their King and Queen, but also their prime minister and sports minister.
There are a gamut of reasons for the snubs from western leaders. The Americans are said to be particularly upset by the continuing presence of NSA leaker Edward Snowden in Moscow.
The leaking on Thursday of a sensitive and embarrassing conversation between Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and George Pyatt, the US ambassador in Kiev, apparently recorded by Russian intelligence, will not have improved relations.
But if one issue above all must be singled out for Western leaders' reluctance to attend, it is gay rights.
When Vladimir Putin signed the law banning promotion of “non-traditional” sexual orientations to minors last summer, it was intended strictly for domestic consumption: a consciously populist measure meant to galvanise support for the Kremlin amongst a perceived conservative majority of Russian voters.
The international backlash took the Russian government by surprise, and Kremlin watchers in Moscow believe if Mr Putin had been aware of the tarnish it would put on the Olympic sheen he may never have done it.
“They simply had no idea about the strength of feeling about this kind of thing in the West. They simply didn’t expect it,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor in chief of Russia in Global Affairs and a close watcher of Russian foreign policy.
While he has refused to withdraw the law, Mr Putin has done his best to back-pedal, defending the legislation simply as a child protection measure, publicly promising that gay and lesbian athletes and visitors will be welcome at the games, and repeatedly disavowing homophobia.
Those reassurances have not persuaded either Mr Cameron or Mr Obama to change their travel schedules, however.
Not that it makes much difference. One official speaking off the record confessed that relations with Western capitals are already at such a low ebb that the apparent snubs "certainly aren't going to make things worse than they already are."
Besides, compared to the 1980 Moscow Olympics, which was marred by full sporting boycotts in protest at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the apparent snubs to Sochi are harmless. Well, mostly.
“It is not a protocol event. No one is obliged to come,” said Mr Lukyanov. “But it will probably be remembered the next time Mr Cameron wants some help with something.”
It is not only foreign dignitaries who have stayed away, however: the apparent lack of international spectators has also drawn the attention of the international media. Organisers have refused to reveal exactly how many tickets are on sale until the end of the games, and nor is it known how many foreign guests have made the journey to the Black Sea Coast.
But in Central Sochi most people seemed to be either Russian volunteers, journalists or policemen. A straw poll of passers by on Friday afternoon found only one foreign spectator - a very worried German who was trying to complete a bureaucratic paper chase in time to get to the opening ceremony this evening.
"I gave the receptionist at the hotel my passport, and it was a mistake. I thought they've just photocopy it and take the details they needed. But instead they've taken it to the police station," he said. "I can't pick up my tickets without it, and without tickets I can't get a spectator pass."
The hotel apparently claimed that the police had suddenly changed the rules on registration, demanding original documents rather than photocopies.
"Guess I'll try with a copy of my passport. I can't be the only one in this boat, can I?" said the German.

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